Expectations Un-dashed...

Well, the voting for the Senedd elections is over and the count is done. No overall majority, but as expected, the vote has gone the way principally of Plaid Cymru and Reform. No other party came remotely close to either. I can't say I'm either surprised at the outcome, or even - speaking as a lifelong Labour voter who still casts a red ballot at every election - particularly upset at the outcome. Bemused perhaps at the ludicrous success of the arriviste Reform and their frankly ludicrous figurehead, but upset, no. We live in 'interesting' times, and the political scene at the moment verges frankly on the surreal; but it's where it is, and for the duration we're going to have to put up with whatever tomfoolery transpires. 

That Labour's century long Welsh hegemony was under threat was glaringly obvious from the outset, and the more perspicacious of pundits read it just right: the dual Labour governments were more curse than blessing on either, particularly here in Wales, as blame assigned to Westminster was readily larded onto Welsh Labour. Something had to give and it did, with a history-making result. Why am I not sad at the outcome, given my party allegiance? Three reasons: one, my party needed a very sharp kick in the backside to remind it of its roots, priorities and obligations to its electorate; secondly, Plaid Cymru at least have the largest number of seats in the Senedd - short of an absolute majority admittedly, but with effective control over the situation; and thirdly, and probably most importantly, Reform is setting itself up to fail in the full glare of being in government. Reform's track record in local councils thus far has been woeful. If they repeat this performance in government, they will be out at the very next test, and hopefully consigned to history as a failed and aberrant chapter in UK politics.

I'll stake my claim now that Reform will lose Farage at the earliest opportunity, when responsibility for governing in a coalition kicks in and he gets bored with it all and that they will have at most one term in significant office here in Wales. Also I believe that Labour will rebuild itself and its credibility amongst the working classes here, provided that the Westminster government stands firm and doesn't descend into the mad kind of leadership fugue that the Tories effectively destroyed themselves with. One tip I would hazard to Sir Keir Starmer for free is to get on board with modern PR techniques and bring someone like - maybe even - Alastair Campbell on board to firm up the press for the good stuff that's currently too quietly happening, and to deflect the myriad barbs that Labour governments have always had fired in their direction, regardless of true reason. So, all in all, an expected result but not all is gloom and doom from the perspective of this old fool on the hill... [Ironically, the best image I could find on the subject is the above, ©The Revolutionary Communist Party]