Robbin' Hoodwink

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I don't know if it's me, but the arithmetic in Eliot Wilson's article [yesterday's i Newspaper, UK] on Reform UK's recently-touted idea of '... a system of wealth transfer from rich to poor.' just doesn't seem to stack up. The mechanism that Farage's party of no-marks and flakes is proposing would attract non-domiciled wealthy individuals into a new, tax-lite environment here in the UK. As well as being exempt from UK taxation for a decade on their overseas earnings, they would avoid all inheritance tax, in return for buying into a scheme Reform have dubbed "The Britannia Card", for a one-off payment of £250,000 each, the proceeds of all earnings from this to be distributed among the lowest ten percent of UK earners at the end of each year. According to the article's [Reform's?] figures, this would net around 2.5 million workers between £600 and £1,000 each per year. This all sounds very grand and dashingly Robin Hood of Farage and Reform; except that the calculations they have made in arriving at the headline figures appear decidedly iffy.

Let's have a look at the numbers. In 2024/25, the working-age population in employment of the UK was 34 million, so the lowest ten percent represents a group totalling 3.4 million people, not the 2.5 million stated in the article. Reform hopes to attract 6,000 non-doms into the scheme, so the gross revenue garnered would be a one-off fund of £1.5 billion, 75% of the figure stated by Wilson that would be paid out to the eligible, per annum. Assuming this principal sum earns at about the base rate, which currently hovers around four percent, that would represent a return of £60 million/annum. This assumes that the principal capital stays untouched, rolling over to the following year. Divide this annual return by the number of eligible workers and we arrive at the princely bottom line of £17.65/person/year. Doesn't quite have the same quality of vote-catching clout, does it? Still, mustn't grumble, we must be thankful for small mercies and the beneficence of the wealthier than we [just don't forget to doff your cap and touch your forelock when banking the price of four pints of Guinness]. By the way, the cost of this exercise to the UK taxpayer will be £34 billion in lost taxes over five years, which will have to come from our pockets. Anyway, by the time the next General Election rolls around, Farage will have gotten bored again and moved on...

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